This research will use archival data to test statistical models of the growth and spread of drug markets and related problems across California over 17 years (1990-2006). We will examine the broad frame of market and enforcement activities related to illegal drugs, but emphasize studies of the methamphetamine market (a market that has spread across California during this time). This research will assess the degree to which community and neighborhood risk factors (such as poverty) accelerate the growth of drug markets and related problems (e.g., overdoses, violence). Bayesian space-time disease models will be applied at different levels of geographic resolution (e.g., cities and zip code areas). Greater understanding of the broader sociodemographic conditions that enable the development of drug markets will allow for the development of effective state-wide drug prevention strategies.

 

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